West Virginia’s Population Trends: Past, Present, and Future

West Virginia’s population history is marked by dramatic shifts. After growing steadily from the 18th century through the mid-20th (peaking at about 2,005,552 in 1950wvencyclopedia.org), the state began a long decline. As coal mining jobs dwindled and residents moved away, the population slid: by 1970 it had fallen to ~1.8 million, briefly rebounded in the 1970s energy boom, then declined again through the 1980s and 1990s. In the 21st century the trend has continued: the 2020 census found just 1,793,716 West Virginianswvencyclopedia.org, about 3.3% lower than in 2010wvmetronews.com. Indeed, among U.S. states only three (including Illinois and Mississippi) lost population from 2010 to 2020wvencyclopedia.org. Census estimates show another 27,609 lost by 2024wvencyclopedia.org. In short, West Virginia has endured a net loss of roughly 800,000 residents since its 1950 peakwvdhhr.org, averaging tens of thousands per year leaving the state.

Historical Peaks and Declines

In the early 20th century, West Virginia’s booming coal, timber, and manufacturing industries drove rapid growth. The state’s population nearly tripled from ~700,000 in 1900 to just over 2 million by 1950wvencyclopedia.org. The “boom” era saw even small counties swell. However, after 1950 this growth reversed. Mechanization of coal mining, the decline of manufacturing, and better opportunities elsewhere led to out-migration. One report notes a net loss of about 797,000people to out-migration between 1950 and 2000wvdhhr.org, even though births exceeded deaths (a “natural increase”) by over 600,000. In other words, without migration losses WV’s 2000 population would have been well over 2.6 million; instead it was ~1.8 millionwvdhhr.org. By county, only 17 of 55 counties in 2000 had larger populations than in 1950. Most of these were in the Eastern Panhandle or near the Ohio River; the rest were shrinking. Notably, McDowell, Logan, Kanawha, Ohio, and Hancock counties lost residents in every decade from 1950 to 2000wvdhhr.org, reflecting the faltering coal economy and urban flight.

Recent Decade and County-Level Shifts

Since 2010 the decline has persisted. The 2020 Census confirmed a 3.3% drop in state population (from 1.854 million to 1.792 million)wvmetronews.com. Nearly all counties lost people in that decade – all but eightwvmetronews.com. Growth clustered in the high-tech and commuter suburbs of the east, while rural coalfield and industrial communities shrank. The Eastern Panhandle and Potomac Highlands saw the biggest gains: from 2022–2023, Berkeley County alone grew 2.4%, and Jefferson, Morgan, Hampshire, and Hardy also saw modest increaseswvpublic.org. Monongalia County (home to Morgantown/WVU) and Marion County saw slight growth, as did Monroe in the southwvpublic.org. Meanwhile, 47 of 55 counties lost population in 2022–2023wvpublic.org. Charleston (Kanawha County) remains the largest city, but its numbers fell from ~86,000 in 1960 to ~48,864 in 2020wvmetronews.com. Huntington and Parkersburg similarly have seen their populations roughly halved since mid-centurywvmetronews.com. In short, urban centers have not been exempt from decline, and many smaller towns have fared worse.

Demographically, West Virginia is now the oldest and one of the poorest states. Over 21% of residents are 65+ (well above the national ~17%)business.wvu.edu. The median age exceeds the U.S. by more than 3 yearsbusiness.wvu.edu. Births have been roughly equal to deaths for decades, so natural increase is near zero; most population change comes from migration (or lack thereof)wvencyclopedia.orgbusiness.wvu.edu. A recent WVU economic report notes that “West Virginia has seen its population decline annually for more than a decade, with an overall loss of over 88,000 residents since 2012”business.wvu.edu. Because of these losses the state even lost a Congressional seat (from three to two) by 2023business.wvu.edu.

Economic and Infrastructure Challenges by Region

The county-level economic picture helps explain these trends. Rural and southern coalfield counties have extremely high poverty and unemployment, while the Panhandle and Northern Corridor (around Morgantown) are relatively affluent and growing. Eleven West Virginia counties are in “persistent poverty” (≥20% poverty rate for 30+ years)mountainstatespotlight.org: Barbour, Braxton, Clay, Fayette, Lincoln, Logan, McDowell, Mingo, Monongalia, Summers, and Webstermountainstatespotlight.org. Many of these are deep-rural coal counties (McDowell, Mingo) or isolated Appalachia (Summers, Webster). By contrast, Monongalia and some Panhandle counties have growing incomes tied to education, federal jobs, or new industries.

Infrastructure is strained or lacking in shrinking counties. Broadband access remains patchy in the mountainsnaco.org, limiting remote-work and online education. Healthcare access is sparse: rural residents may drive an hour or more for a hospital, and many small hospitals have closednaco.org. Transit is minimal, and housing shortages or dilapidation in some areas deter new workers. Workforce training is another issue: a WV workforce-development director notes that many rural areas “don’t have the population that can produce enough suitable job candidates, even with training”naco.orgnaco.org.

Projections and Planning Implications

All signs point to continued decline. WVU’s Bureau of Business & Economic Research projects the total state population to fall from about 1.79 million in 2020 to roughly 1.71 million by 2040business.wvu.edu (a drop of ~4.8%). Most counties shrink: McDowell County, for example, is projected to fall from 19,111 (2020) to 13,037 (2040) (–32%)business.wvu.edu, while Mingo drops 19%, Summers 20%, and Wetzel 21%. A few counties grow or stay flat: Berkeley (+40%), Jefferson (+12%), Monongalia (+6.8%), and Putnam (~0%)business.wvu.edubusiness.wvu.edu. These projections assume continued low birth rates and some in-migration, which recent data (2020–2023) suggest may slightly offset outflowsbusiness.wvu.edu.

The implications for rural planning are stark. A skewed age structure and shrinking tax base mean counties must find new ways to maintain services. Strategic investments in technology and human capital are critical. Schools and training centers can adopt AI-enhanced educational tools to personalize learning in underfunded districts. Healthcare providers can deploy telemedicine and AI diagnostics to extend scarce specialists into remote areas. Broadly, every county needs better broadband, public transit, and lifelong learning programs to make the local workforce adaptable. The development pipeline must focus on reskilling older workers and engaging youth, so that even with fewer residents the economy remains resilientbusiness.wvu.edunaco.org.

County-by-County Guide

Below is a region-by-region overview of West Virginia’s counties. Each entry highlights historical/current population, economic and infrastructure challenges, projected changes, and tailored investment strategies focused on AI in education, health, and remote work.

• Eastern Panhandle (growth counties):

  • Berkeley & Jefferson: Fast-growing; served by DC-area spillover. Robust housing/tech jobs, aging retirees. High new housing demand; commuter traffic. +40% (122k→170k) and +12% (57.7k→64.5k) projectedbusiness.wvu.edu. Strategy: Enhance tech education and coworking (AI tutors, fiber broadband) to support in-migrants and teleworkers.

  • Morgan, Hampshire, Hardy: Moderate growth. Mix of tourism and commuting. Limited local industry, broadband gaps. Projections: small growth/stability (~–5% to +5%). Strategy: Invest in outdoor recreation industries, telehealth clinics with AI triage, and online vocational programs to diversify jobs.

• Northern Corridor:

  • Monongalia: Home to WVU (Morgantown). Population ~105k (2020), projected 113k by 2040business.wvu.edu. University anchors economy; relatively low unemployment. Challenges: higher cost of living, traffic. Strategy: Leverage WVU for AI research hubs, expand online courses for rural students, and create virtual healthcare partnerships to serve Appalachia.

  • Marion, Harrison, Ohio: Mid-sized (50–66k) with manufacturing legacies. Slow decline (e.g. Marion ~–5%), aging workforce. Strategy: Retrain coal/steel workers via AI-driven classrooms, support telemedicine, and attract remote employers with tax incentives.

• Mid-State (Trans-Allegheny):

  • Kanawha: Charleston metro, 180k (2020)→169k (2040)business.wvu.edu. Government and healthcare center, but population fell by 10% over 70 yrs. Urban poverty pockets existmountainstatespotlight.org. Strategy: Urban AI-powered education programs, automated traffic/energy management, and health initiatives (e.g., AI-based opioid recovery support) to improve city services.

  • Jackson, Wood: Rust-belt mix of small cities (Parkersburg, etc.). Wood: 84k→76k (2020–40), Jackson: 27.8k→25.4kbusiness.wvu.edubusiness.wvu.edu. Job declines in manufacturing. Strategy: Develop advanced manufacturing training with AR/VR and AI-simulations; bolster tele-education partnerships with local colleges.

• Southern Coalfields:

  • McDowell, Mingo, Logan, Wyoming, Fayette, Raleigh, Summers: These have seen the steepest drops. McDowell (19.1k→13.0k), Mingo (23.6k→19.0k) are projected to lose 20–30%business.wvu.edu. Infrastructure is crumbling: few doctors, poor broadband, high opioid rates. Strategy: Focus federal/state grants on building broadband “backbone” networks; deploy nurse-practitioner telehealth supported by AI diagnostics; retrain laid-off miners in remote IT/customer service roles via online AI-guided curricula; invest in AI-augmented renewable energy (e.g. remote-control microgrids) to create jobs.

• Rural Central Appalachia:

  • Upshur, Webster, Pendleton, Tucker, Pocahontas, etc.: Small, aging, mixed economies (farming, tourism). Projected declines ~10–25% (e.g. Webster 8.4k→6.8kbusiness.wvu.edu). Budget tight; youth leaving. Strategy: Create distance-learning centers with AI tutors to support local schools; promote ecotourism with AI-generated marketing; enable remote work through community co-working spaces.

• Mid-Atlantic Fringe:

  • Raleigh, Mercer, Summers: Bluefield/Princeton region, declining coal towns (Raleigh 74.6k→67.5kbusiness.wvu.edu). Poverty above state average. Strategy: Expand community college e-learning (AI tutors in technical fields), mobile health units with telemedicine, and AI tools for agri-business (smart farming) to revive local economies.

• Other Rural Counties:
  Many smaller counties (Fayette, Nicholas, etc.) show steady decline. For all, general strategies apply: boost broadband, telehealth, and AI-enhanced education. For example, Monroe (projected ~11.4k in 2040) can train teachers to use AI literacy tools; Hancock (29k→25k) needs commuter support programs; Wood (84k→76k) can upgrade hospitals with AI imaging. Even counties with modest change should invest in digital skills.

Each county’s strategic plan should align with its assets: coal region counties could become hubs for remote energy-tech training; university-adjacent counties should spin off AI research to local industry; and rural counties must leverage tele-services. Funders should channel grants into high-speed internet and platform tools (AI tutoring platforms, telehealth software, remote-work job portals) that multiply the impact of a shrinking workforce. For example, mobile AI health apps could serve thousands across Appalachia, or cloud-based AI coding courses could upskill adults in mining towns. The goal is ensuring resilience: by embracing technology and focusing on education and health, even a smaller WV can thrive.

Works Cited:
Kercheval, Hoppy. “West Virginia’s Population Decline Hits Cities Hard.” WV MetroNews, 27 Aug. 2021.
Pagán, LaShawn. “Kids, the Working Poor and People of Color: Here’s What Persistent Poverty Looks Like in West Virginia.” Mountain State Spotlight, 16 Jan. 2024.
Walker, Jack. “Only 8 Counties See Growth In State, Most In Eastern Panhandle.” West Virginia Public Broadcasting, 20 Mar. 2024.
West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources. “A Look at West Virginia’s Population by Decade, 1950–2000.” Statistical Brief No. 8, May 2002.
West Virginia University, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. West Virginia Economic Outlook 2024–2029.John Chambers College of Business and Economics, 2023.
West Virginia University, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. West Virginia Population Projection by Counties, 2020–2040. College of Business and Economics, Oct. 2022.
West Virginia Humanities Council (ed.). “Population.” e-WV: The West Virginia Encyclopedia, 2023.
National Association of Counties. “Lack of Broadband, Housing Challenge Rural Counties on Workforce Development.”1 May 2025.
(Additional demographic and economic data from U.S. Census Bureau reports and state sources as noted in text.)